Matthias Linnemann

Dear friends of peace,

From February 14-16, 2025, the 61st Munich Security Conference (MSC) will take place at the Bayerischer Hof. This year, the event will undoubtedly be shaped by how the Trump administration aligns U.S. foreign policy and what impact this will have on NATO and the war in Ukraine. Although the new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, spoke in an interview about the benefits of a multipolar world, this does not necessarily mean the end of U.S. hegemony. The brutal approach President Trump pursues has already become evident with regard to tariff policies towards Canada, Mexico, and China, and the handling of Panama and Greenland.

The war in Ukraine has been raging for almost exactly three years. The loss of life and destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine, as well as the death and injury of soldiers on both sides, remain immense. Whether the US will hold substantive talks with Russia is still unclear. So far, there have only been lip service from the American president. There can currently only be speculation about talks already taking place behind the scenes.

The war in Israel/Palestine has led to particularly high casualties and disastrous destruction on the Palestinian side. There is currently a ceasefire in place, which is being used to exchange hostages and prisoners. How this very bloody conflict will develop further is currently unclear.

The entire EU has been more noticeable in the war in Ukraine and the war in Israel/Palestine through escalation and arms deliveries than through diplomacy and de-escalation. EU states have also played virtually no mediating – and certainly no moderating – role in the regime change in Syria, which was primarily prepared by the USA over many years: arms deliveries and sanctions have seemed to be the means of choice in the EU for several years. Diplomatic initiatives are barely discernible. Individual pioneers are quickly curbed (Spain, Hungary).

It remains to be hoped that the EU – and thus also Germany – will be more committed to compromise and conflict resolution in the future. However, in view of the latest statements by EU Commission President von der Leyen, there are major doubts: she is calling for even more money for armaments and even more militarization of society.

Christoph Heusgen is to hand over the conference management to the former Norwegian Prime Minister and long-time NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the end of the MSC 2025. However, as he will now take over the office of Norwegian Finance Minister, it remains unclear when and how Stoltenberg will influence the design of the MSC.

With regard to the war in Ukraine, Jens Stoltenberg has often not been noticed for de-escalating contributions. In October 2024, however, Stoltenberg explicitly spoke out in favor of negotiations and brought a “Finlandization”, i.e. a largely neutral status for Ukraine, into the discussion (Der Freitag, 18.10.2024).

How will Jens Stoltenberg position himself as the new head of the Munich Security Conference? What influence will he have on the orientation of the MSC in times of existing global and additionally developing regional wars and conflicts? What is Stoltenberg’s concept of “security”?

Our MSKv project group celebrated its 20th anniversary in 2024. Since 2004, we have been working to ensure that the security logic at the MSC is replaced by a peace logic. Where were we able to set accents, where were we able to stimulate reflection? What has the work of our small team achieved at all? More about this in our new MSKv newspaper.

Matthias Linnemann, Member of the Board MSKv

Around the Munich Security Conference 2025

Information on events of the peace movement, our association’s activities at the MSC 2025, and our current project newspaper can be found via this link

 

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